Taps Coogan – October 29th, 2020

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Over the past seven days, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain have seen a continued sharp rise in new Covid cases. Respectively, each has reported an average of: 12,609 new cases per day, 39,673 cases per day, 20,017 cases per day, and 17,878 cases per day over the past week.

Adjusted for population, all but Germany are now reporting cases faster than the US. Per capita, France is reporting cases more than twice as fast as the US.

Since the start of the Covid pandemic, the US has reported a higher number of total of Covid cases per capita than most European countries, although not all EU nations (Belgium is higher for example), and not by the margins that partisans have suggested (27,502 cases per million in the US vs 25,549 in Spain for example). Fatalities per capita have also been modestly higher in the US than in most European countries, but not in all cases and not by the margins that partisans have implied. For example, fatalities per capita in Spain and Belgium are higher than in the US.

All of this poses a serious conundrum. Most European nations imposed very strict lockdowns during the Spring and early Summer. Virtually all have had national mask mandates for weeks if not months. Several have had partial restrictions and/or curfews for the last several weeks. None of that has stopped new cases from rising to the point of eclipsing the US, a place with fewer restrictions in most places.

Maybe it’s time to ease up on the illusion of control, especially if it is cornering politicians into implementing national lockdowns with highly dubious net societal benefits.

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