Submitted by Taps Coogan on the 30th of March 2018 to The Sounding Line.
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The following chart shows the total fertility rate in every country in the world. For every country colored blue, the fertility rate is lower than the replacement rate, the rate required to keep a country’s population constant.
Total Fertility Rate
With the exception of France, New Zealand, and Israel, every developed country in the world has a fertility rate below the replacement rate. Also, nearly all of East Asia and several South American countries have a fertility rates below the replacement rate. This includes: China, Japan, North and South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, Brazil, Columbia, Uruguay, and Paraguay.
Nonetheless, only a small subset of countries with fertility rates below the replacement rate are seeing their populations actually shrink. The following map highlights which countries are seeing their population shrink.
There are only two ways for a country with a fertility rate below the replacement level to experience population growth. The first is for the average life expectancy to increase. If people live longer lives, the older segments of the population will grow and offset the decline in the young population. Life expectancy has increased notably around world in the past 50 years. In the US and Europe average life expectancy has increased by over ten years since the 1950s. The other way for a country with a fertility rate below the replacement level to experience population growth is through immigration.
The growth in life expectancy is slowing dramatically around the world. In fact, the average lifespan in the US has actually decreased for two years in a row as the opioid crisis and increasing obesity rates take their toll. If fertility rates do not increase, nearly all of the population growth that huge swaths of the world will experience in coming decades will be almost exclusively the result of immigration from those countries whose fertility rates are higher.
To visualize the flow of immigration to and from every country in the world, check out this post.
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