Taps Coogan – November 14th, 2020

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Back in early October, we shared a MacroVoices interview with Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute in which he detailed his view that, from a business cycle standpoint, the recession was already over in the US and that inflation and GDP were headed higher. Based on the strong third quarter GDP figures from a couple weeks ago, which puts the US on the long road to recovery, that call seems likely to be correct from a technical perspective. Of course, more lockdowns etc… this winter could change everything.

Today we share another recent MacroVoices interview with Mr. Achuthan in which he details at length why he believes that we will see continued economic expansion and higher inflation for at least the next several quarters. The argument hinges on his interpretation of his proprietary leading indicators like the Future Inflation Gauge and the belief that inflation cycles are independent of headline events. Whether you agree or not, it’s an interesting perspective.

Enjoy the full discussion below:

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