Taps Coogan – November 21st, 2022

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The following chart, from Bloomberg, shows that the UN’s World wholesale global food price index has essentially stopped rising.

While wholesale prices have stopped going up, they have not returned to pre-Covid levels. Retail food prices are likely to continue rising as brands keep passing inflation from the other parts of their supply chains on to customers.

Nonetheless, the explosive pace of food inflation is likely moderating. So are most of the other leading indicators of inflation that we talked about incessantly in 2020 and early 2021.

Judging by the historical precedent, even a relatively fast decline in inflation would take about a year from the peak to get back to 2%.

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