Taps Coogan – September 29th, 2022

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The following chart, from Bloomberg, shows the cost to ship a 40-foot container from China to LA, New York, and Rotterdam. All three have seen prices fall by roughly two-thirds from the peak late last year.

Shipping costs still have somewhere in the range of 50%-75% to fall before they get back to pre-Covid levels, but a falling trend is clearly in place.

Nonetheless, the bizarre Covid/stimulus inspired consumer goods buying frenzy is winding down. By our guess-timation, US retails sales volumes need to fall another ~8% to get back to the pre-Covid growth trend and that’s assuming no over-correction.

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