Taps Coogan – May 31st, 2023

Daniel Lacalle, Chief Economist at Tressis Gestión and author of several books including ‘Freedom or Equality,’ recently spoke with Macro Voices‘ Erik Townsend about the outlook for European markets, energy, and de-dollarization.

The wide ranging interview doesn’t lend itself to excerpts but the punchlines are that, despite the declines in energy and commodity prices, supply remains tight relative to demand. Furthermore, the EU remains vulnerable to energy shortages during peak demand this summer and next winter.

He sees a mild economic slowdown – more-so than a severe recession – due to his belief that central banks will pivot quickly if economic activity slows sharply. For that reason, he sees inflation remaining above 2% for a longer time as growth slows but doesn’t fully dip into recession, i.e. stagflation.

Enjoy the full discussion above.