Taps Coogan – February 14th, 2023

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The following chart, from Gallup via Charlie Bilello, reveals the results of a long-running Gallup poll that asks Americans whether they consider themselves financially worse off or better off than they were one year ago.

Unsurprisingly, roughly 50% of Americans report being ‘worse-off’ than last year. What may be a bit more surprising is just how rare that is. Since 1976, >50% ‘worse-off’ levels have only been registered in 2008 and 2009, during the Global Financial Crisis.

Nonetheless, a majority of Americans remain characteristically optimistic about their future finances, with 60% expecting to be wealthier next year, though concerns are clearly creeping in.

Of course, whether people expect their financial conditions to improve or worsen is closely aligned to their politics: 70% of Democrats expect improvement compared to 49% of Republicans.

Considering a labor market recession hasn’t even begun, it wouldn’t be surprisingly if these data series deteriorate quite a bit.