Taps Coogan – November 13th, 2020
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Leland Miller, CEO of China Beige Book International and long time China watcher, recently spoke with CNBC about the economic recovery in China since the Covid pandemic started earlier this year. After sharing some personal views on US-China policy changes post election, he notes that while China’s recovery may be among the strongest in the world, most metrics remain down year-over-year and the geographic divisions between rural and urban are stark.
Some excerpts from Leland Miller:
“The biggest thing that we’ve seen is that there is no year over year improvement… It’s improving on quarter but it’s not improving on year. The second thing is you are seeing areas of China with great momentum… but this is not what’s happening in China writ large. If you separate what’s happening with some big cities on the coast, the usual suspects: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, and you separate what’s happening there with what’s happening in the rest of the country you have two very divergent pictures… What’s happening outside of the biggest cities and the biggest firms in China is a very muted recovery…”
There is more to the interview, so enjoy it above.
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I have the feeling a great deal of China’s recovery is based on replenishing the empty shelves in America before the Christmas season. What consumers buy matters a great deal. When looking at the policies flowing out of Washington it is clear many politicians seem to have no idea that all consumer spending and purchases are not created equal. The fact is, consumers should take a long look at how their purchases will impact the economy over time. Where money flows and who it enriches is a key component of economics, the failure to consider this is a blind spot… Read more »