Submitted by Taps Coogan on the 25th of November 2019 to The Sounding Line.
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Luke Gromen, founder and president of Forest for the Trees, recently spoke with MACRO Voices’ Erik Townstead about how the Fed’s recent balance sheet expansion amounts to a defacto monetization of the national debt and reinforces the idea that fiscal policy is now driving monetary policy.
Some excerpts from Luke Gromen:
“I’ve been fascinated to watch what I would call an ongoing shift in the narrative (of the Fed’s recent balance sheet expansion) from temporary and technical, to not temporary but still technical, to not QE, and in the last couple weeks we’ve had a few more analysts get close to describing the way that I think really speaks to the crux of it… This is why we were calling the dynamic of the Fed effectively financing US deficits ‘Voldemort.’ People were afraid to say its name.”
“When people are being presented the evidence that this has sort of begun, this effective monetization, nobody wants to call (it) by its name, which in this case is the US government is being financed in short term debt markets… by the Fed…”
“Clearly the world needs more dollar liquidity injected… so to me the question becomes a game of how fast is the liquidity provided relative to how fast it is needed… it can be more ‘non-QE.’ It can be more repo. It can be the rolling back of banking regulations… They’ve undone what was ten months of QT in nine weeks in response to what was a very serious crisis in the repo markets…”
There is much more to the interview, so enjoy it above.
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In an effort to avoid a crisis the Fed has been forced to deal with a liquidity issue in repo rates since a sudden and dramatic surge began in September. While it is difficult to see the difference between QE and an injection aimed at maintaining liquidity, in this case, several reasons exist to believe this is not QE.
A strong dislike and distrust of the Fed should not blind us to the idea this may still play out in many ways. More on this subject in the article below.
https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2019/10/qe4-or-necessary-liquidity-injections.html
No mention of credit markets at all… sure we could rally year end on no volume in equity indices… but credit markets since the REPO blowout have been telling a different story… but corps with limited cashflow, and dwindling supply of collateral (thanks FED for the RREPOS and HQLA purchaes) gonna find it hard to borrow to keep buying back their stock.