Submitted by Taps Coogan on the 12th of April 2020 to The Sounding Line.

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As we have now noted a few times, the ongoing Coronavirus outbreak has been losing momentum for the past couple of weeks. The first wave of the outbreak, which started in China and struck most of East Asia, peaked in the first two weeks of February. Hopefully, the second wave, which has primarily stuck Western Europe and North America, is peaking right now. The daily increase in new cases as well as the daily change in active cases (new cases minus recoveries and deaths) appears to have peaked, at least for now.

Individually, most countries in Western Europe and North America now have what will hopefully prove to be a peak in daily cases.

Unfortunately, a third wave may now be building in several large developing/emerging markets, countries whose ability to test, quarantine, and treat sick patients is likely to be much worse than in developed countries. To whatever degree the case count is understated in developed countries, it is likely radically worse in emerging markets. Despite that limited testing capability, many emerging markets are already showing trends reminiscent of China, the US, or Western Europe at the start of their outbreaks.

While the developed world is hopefully seeing the peak of its outbreak, the global story is hardly over. Cases and fatalities are now being reported in some of the most densely populated, least sanitary slums on Earth. With stories of multiple cases showing up in China that trace back to Nigeria, even if developed countries manage to bring their cases counts down further, the world isn’t going back to normal anytime soon.

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