Submitted by Taps Coogan on the 6th of April 2020 to The Sounding Line.

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Although it may not feel like it, there are increasingly clear signs that the Coronavirus outbreak is losing steam in a number of major hot-spots, as well as globally. Those signs are getting clearer despite improving testing capabilities that enable us to find cases more easily. The following charts tell the story.

While the number of new cases reported globally has only decreased for the last two days (chart above), the rate of growth in the number of total confirmed cases has been trending lower since March 26th (chart below).

As the chart below shows, the daily change in active cases (new cases minus recoveries and deaths) has now been roughly stable since March 28th. As the daily growth rate in new cases has slowed, recoveries have been able to catch up, at least partially.

Of the ten largest outbreaks (US, Spain, Italy, Germany, France, China, Iran, UK, Turkey, Switzerland), six of them now appear to have identifiable peaks in the daily rate of new cases (Spain, Italy, Germany, China, Iran, Switzerland)

Certainly, the official statistics in Iran and China should be taken with a heavy dose of salt. Other outbreaks will likely worsen, such as in India and over emerging markets. Furthermore, the outbreaks in the US, UK, Turkey, and France have not yet shown clear signs of peaking.

However, several of the largest outbreaks in the world are already peaking and, globally, growth has slowed to the point where the daily increase in active cases has stopped growing.

While this wave of the outbreak likely has not peaked quite yet, it’s getting easier to see it doing so.

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