Taps Coogan – February 27th, 2022
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A couple weeks ago, the best argument that could have been made that Putin was not going to invade Ukraine, but simply bluffing to extract concessions or setting up the conditions to formally recognize Donetsk and Luhansk, was how incredibly unwise launching a full scale invasion of Ukraine would be.
Ukraine is a big country, roughly as large as Afghanistan, more populated, and harbors long standing grievances against Russia. It’s surrounded by countries that harbor similar grievances towards Russia: Poland, Romania, Slovakia, etc…
Nobody knows where this conflict is going but Russia’s failure to secure a ‘decapitation’ strike within the first day or two, which would have allowed Putin to present some new Ukrainian government as a fait accompli and the Ukrainians as lacking the will to fight for their sovereignty, is gone. Indeed, the single best proof that Ukraine is a sovereign state (other than Lavrov’s signature on the Budapest Memorandum) is that Ukrainians are willing to fight en masse against overwhelming odds and die for their sovereignty. However the war ends, Ukrainian national identity is now undeniable to Ukrainians.
Putin now faces a military quagmire in a large, hostile, populated country with extensive land borders to neighbors increasingly willing to supply man-portable defensive weapons to Ukraine. He is also facing international condemnation, sanctions, and a future of forced reliance on China for… pretty much everything Russia can’t do internally.
It’s long past time to retire the ‘Putin is a master strategist’ cliché.
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Like most I’ve been shocked and appalled at Russia’s actions over the last week. I suppose we always knew they were capable of this. I think this could actually end up significantly helping the US and Europe. There will be the need for much more unity and disagreement among NATO members. Our day to day concerns pale in comparison to the Russian threat. I fully expect Finland and Sweden to join NATO. Baltics will be armed to the teeth. Most European nations will significantly increase their military budgets. US Intel was found to be Grade A, and I imagine most… Read more »
I agree with much of what you’ve said but, factually, Trump overturned the Obama administration’s ban on lethal aid to Ukraine (which endured Russia taking Crimea during the Obama administration) and sent weapons repeatedly, including javelins. He pulled us out of arms treaties that Russia was violating, sanctioned Nord Stream 2 more aggressively than Biden, etc… Both sides of the political spectrum have their BS partisan narratives. One of those is the Trump-Russia thing. Trump’s position on Russia was to arm Ukraine, to try and find a diplomatic rapprochement with Russia to split them off from China, while pressuring NATO… Read more »
I can’t believe that Trump was gleefully, joyfully encouraging Putin to attack Ukraine!!! The man is mad.
My sarcasm detector can’t tell if you are joking or think he actually did that
Not saying Russia is right to invade but what about NATO’s actions? Slowly creeping on Russia, changing their mission from mutual protection to energy control, the CIA orchestrating a coup in 2014, etc. And what about Ukraine’s actions? Atrocities committed against Russians after the 2014 coup and not following the terms of the Minsk agreement?
Whatever validity those arguments do or don’t hold, Russia invading Ukraine is immoral and incredibly foolish
I think NATO’s east ward creep has been entirely justified by Russia’s actions on Ukraine. Eastern European nations have been concerned about Russia and rightfully so. NATO is the response to Russian aggression not the cause of it.