Submitted by Taps Coogan on the 11th of April 2019 to The Sounding Line.
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Yesterday, Theresa May and the EU agreed to yet another extension of Article 50, delaying Brexit until the end of October 2019. Three years after voting to leave the EU, the UK will be participating in the upcoming EU Parliamentary election.
From the beginning of the Brexit saga, the only way Brexit was going to happen was if the Prime Minister forced Parliament to choose between a deal and ‘No-Deal’ Brexit. The reality is that a majority in Parliament do not support any form of Brexit, let alone a meaningful one, and have rejected every conceivable form of Brexit multiple times. With yesterday’s long term extension of Article 50, it is now crystal clear that Theresa May will never force Parliament to make such a ‘deal or no deal’ choice and stick to it.
The upcoming EU Parliamentary elections were the last plausible deadline that could have forced a Brexit decision. The most recent extension blows beyond that deadline by six months. As such, the default Brexit outcome is no longer that the UK will leave on any given date with or without a deal. The default is now that the UK will remain in the EU via extension, unless a deal is agreed to by Parliament. Practically speaking, Article 50 has been revoked.
The majority in Parliament that wish to remain will now feel safer in rejecting anything but the absolute softest form of Brexit, and perhaps rejecting even that.
Of course, all outcomes remain theoretically possible. Theresa May could very well resign. A general election could be called. Pending such events, the UK is on track for either no Brexit at all or and extremely soft form of Brexit that delivers none of the benefits of Brexit and most of the downsides. That the conservative party is committing total political suicide, makes matters even more complicated.
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