Taps Coogan – April 10th, 2021
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The following chart, from The Daily Shot, shows the results of the NFIB small business survey. Those results points to a looming jump in compensation (i.e. wages) as small business struggle to compete with expanded unemployment insurance and stimulus checks and lure people back into the workforce.
According to conventional thinking, one of the long-missing ingredients to persistently higher inflation has been ‘wage inflation,’ more traditionally known as a rising wages. Robust wage growth was already starting to come into force in 2019 and it looks like its return is imminent, despite very low labor participation, or in this bizarre case because of very low labor participation.
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Our enemies are not overseas. They are 150 miles due south of Philadelphia.
The official unemployment rate of 6.0% is somewhat misleading. It does not count the people who want a job but gave up or all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job. It also ignores all the people who dropped off the rolls. To get a clearer picture of the unemployment rate many people look at what is known as the U-6 number which stands at 10.7%. It will be interesting to see how many of the remaining 8.4 million jobs lost come back considering many small businesses have closed forever. More on this subject and how it relates… Read more »