Taps Coogan – November 6th, 2021

Enjoy The Sounding Line? Click here to subscribe.

Christopher Balding, former professor at Peking University’s HSBC Business School and the Fulbright University of Vietnam, recently spoke with American Thought Leaders’ Jan Jekielek to discuss what he sees as a genuine threat of a conflict between China and Taiwan within the next 18 months.

 

Some excerpts from Christopher Balding: 

“One of the things about Xi (Jinping) that I think is very clear is that he views himself with almost a sense of manifest destiny with regards to China… that he is the individual that will restore China to its rightful place sitting as the unrivaled power in the world… almost as a messianic figure… One of the things that he has talked frequently about is reuniting Taiwan and the mainland and he has said repeatedly that if you don’t reunite with us peacefully we will take you by force…”

“Just recently there were reports from satellite pictures that there are three new bases being constructed right along the eastern seaboard facing Taiwan. The general that is in charge of the Eastern Theater recently took that post up about 18 months ago and he was transferred from the Western Theater where he oversaw Xinjiang, Tibet, and Indian facing forces and the reason that is important is the person in charge of facing Taiwan is probably a trusted loyalist… This is a person that was preparing troops to do battle… Personally, I would expect that there is a material chance of some type of conflict between China and Taiwan plus or minus six months of November 2022 because that is when Xi is expected to be “reelected.” Conflict can mean a variety of things… but I think it is very fair to say that there is a 30%-40% probability of some type of conflict with Taiwan within six months of his re-election…”

Once China gets through next year’s Winter Olympics, the heat is likely to really ramp up against Taiwan. It will ramp up further around Xi Jinping’s appointment as Premier-for-Life.

The US spends about 3.5% of GDP on defense and has spent at least 3% every single year since prior to World War II. Greece spends 3.8%. South Korea spends roughly 2.5%. France spends 2%. Taiwan’s base defense budget is just 1.8% of GDP and falling, though it has been augmented by a supplementary spending plan of roughly $9 billion over the next five years, in addition to a handful of one-off equipment purchases in recent years. So, while Taiwan is technically now spending somewhere between 2% and 3% of GDP, unless it can invent a time machine and begin seriously investing in its defense a decade ago, it’s still too little far too late. Nearly all of the weapon systems Taiwan is now hurriedly buying: tanks, fighter jets, missiles, submarines, helicopters, won’t arrive in meaningful numbers for many years.

Would you like to be notified when we publish a new article on The Sounding Line? Click here to subscribe for free.