Taps Coogan – March 11th, 2022
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David Roche, Independent Strategy President and long-time market and geopolitical observer, recently spoke with CNBC about the Ukraine conflict and his view that Putin has started “believing his own propaganda” and that this is the “beginning of the end of Putin.”
David Roche:
“It certainly isn’t the Russian military machine that was… promised to us when Sergey Shoigu took over and became probably the first really politicized Russian military leader since… going back well into the Red Army. So, in that sense, before we go any further, it’s a failure. They failed to accomplish what was expected. Now why would that be? Number one, a lot of these soldiers are conscripts. They don’t know what they’re fighting for and why. 80% of Russians believe that Ukraine is an independent state. Of course, there is no way of expressing that dissent and Putin…, as a personalized autocratic leader is increasingly isolated in his palace, afraid of Covid, afraid of this and that, but not afraid of killing Ukrainians and he believes his own propaganda… He advisors depend upon promotion, not upon merit, so they repeat to Putin Putin’s worse prejudices. So there is no feedback loop that would allow Putin to get more educated as to what reality was. That is a perfect recipe for major mistakes: military, political, social, and economic and Putin is making them. My view is that this, over a period, the beginning of the end of Putin because he has shown to be hallucinationary and incompetent.”
As we’ve noted before, the single best argument that Putin wasn’t going to invade Ukraine was how incredibly foolish it would be. Yet here we are.
Who knows what comes next, but it’s pretty hard to imagine that Putin is going anywhere. An autocrat’s ability to retain power is a function of ruthlessness, not benevolence or competence – just look at North Korea.
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Thank you for the short article. The Soviet Union fell in December 1991, over 30 years ago. Most Russian soldiers were not born or don’t have a clear memory of a time when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union. There is no particular reason why the average citizen would support this war. The Ruble has now dropped by about 50% and Russian citizens are facing a humanitarian crisis. This is not sustainable for Russia but the ego of Putin will not allow him to back away without some type of way to save face.
I agree and I don’t see an exit ramp that will save face. Doubling down seems much more likely.
Your understanding of history is short sighted. They may not “have a memory” of what you “think” they should but they certainly all KNOW about WWII and what that meant. This information war is so one sided it’s creeping me out. How can so many be so bamboozled so easily? AND now corporations are getting in on the act and pulling out? This is just f’ing CREEPY and it’s not going to end well for anyone. FACT: the USA and CIA fomented a coup in Ukraine in 2014 that ousted the democratically elected government. Read this for a more balanced… Read more »
Interesting, in 1994 the Russian Federation signed the Budapest Treaty recognizing Ukraine’s sovereignty and borders as they were in 1994. In exchange, Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons, the third largest arsenal in the world at the time. Lavrov’s signature is on the first page of the document. It’s actually an easy read, only four pages. I have linked to it for you: http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_1994_1399.pdf Saying that Yanukoyvch was democratically elected is like saying Putin is democratically elected. Regardless, it doesn’t matter. Ukraine is a sovereign country. If France had a coup could Germany, invade, blow it to simthereens, and then… Read more »
Doesn’t sound like you read Stockman’s article. Did NATO make a promise not to move “one inch closer to Russia” yes or no? Did they honor that promise? I don’t support any war whatsoever, however, didn’t NATO have an option to not make this happen in the first place? I’m sorry but if I’m Putin I’m not allowing missiles nor NATO in Ukraine for the very same reason the USA didn’t allow missiles in Cuba. “I’ll be opposing this war just like I was for the wars in Syria, Libya, Iraq” You left out quite a few there BUT. Where… Read more »
You forgot the “etc…”
“I don’t support any war whatsoever” Then stop trying to justify one by repeating the arguments of the people waging one.
Ukraine was never close to joining NATO. That should be obvious now that they won’t even supply obsolete jets to Ukraine while its being invaded. The Cuban Missile crisis was about nuclear armed ballistic missiles not stingers and javelins…
Many wrongs don’t make a right
“That should be obvious now that they won’t even supply obsolete jets to Ukraine while its being invaded.”
That’s irrelevant, abandoning “allies” is what the US and its NATO clients always do whenever things get difficult. It’s hardly proof that their Ukie puppets were “never” going to join NATO, it’s just proof they put their trust in the wrong Empire.