Taps Coogan – July 21st, 2023

Dr. Anas Alhajji, creator of Energy Outlook Advisors, recently spoke with Macro Voices‘ Erik Townsend about his outlook for oil prices for the second half of 2023 and then 2024. Having essentially correctly called oil’s muted first half of 2023, Dr. Alhajji had been calling for a stronger second half to 2023. While still bullish, that bullishness has been significantly moderated due to very high Chinese strategic storage levels.

Throughout the interview, Erik Townsend outlines a radically bullish outlook for oil based on the idea that there is insufficient investment in new production and how that will result in a structural undersupply that will last for years. Dr. Alhajji, while agreeing directionally, constantly moderates that outlook by noting that there is still some spare capacity, that Chinese strategic reserves are very high, that demand destruction will kick in, and that switching to nuclear, gas, renewables, electric cars, coal, etc… will further moderate extreme outcomes. For what it’s worth, I suspect Dr. Alhajji is closer to the truth.