Submitted by Taps Coogan on the 25th of March 2020 to The Sounding Line.
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It’s too early to know with confidence, but there are some signs that the Coronavirus outbreak is slowing in a few major hot-spots, most notably Italy.
Because most people recover from the virus within a few weeks of diagnosis, the population of sick people in Italy should begin to fall in a few weeks, assuming that they can keep the daily new case rate at or below the levels seen for the last few days. That is what happened in China and South Korea. Hopefully, that is what is starting to occur in Italy.
Globally, there has not yet been a plateauing in new cases, though there has been a plateauing in the rate of growth of total cases over the last few days. That is basically the weakest definition of improvement one can come up with. It doesn’t mean that the outbreak is getting better so much as it means that the outbreak has stopped getting worse at an accelerating pace for a few days. Nonetheless, it’s a start.
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