Taps Coogan – October 20th, 2023
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The quick answer to the question posed by the headline is likely ‘neither,’ but as the chart below highlights, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) suggests that we may be closer to exiting a recession than entering one. Via Isabelnet:
🇺🇸 Conference Board LEI
— ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) October 20, 2023
The US LEI decreased by 0.7% in September, which indicates a potential slowdown or contraction in the economy in the coming months
👉 https://t.co/blMxcoFA78
h/t @Conferenceboard #markets #LEI $spx #spx#sp500 #economy #recession #recessions #investing pic.twitter.com/3UjCFsBLMl
The LEI is a fairly reliable recession indicator and one of the very few that slightly leads recessions. This time it has been signaling a recession for over a year, long enough that it should have been a coincident indicator for several quarters. While it’s still negative, it’s starting to trend up again, highlighting the ‘purgatory’ economy we’ve talking about for at least a year: never quite a recession but always close enough to worry about one.
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My question is whether they can continue to hide the current recession behind bogus government metrics, welfare payments, and a wall of sympathetic media until we finally climb out of it?
If there is a debate about whether you’re in a recession, or it’s possible to ‘hide’ it, you’re not in a real recession.
……There is no debate (in my opinion):
https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/gross-domestic-product-charts
And the anecdotal: obvious closed up storefronts and 20 something kids sitting on their couches without jobs…..
The “recession” isn’t coming until at least 6 months AFTER the FED stops tightening. We’re in one IMHO and the “indicators” can paint any picture they like but for some reason when I’m busy that signals recession and I’m buried with work so the coming recession is going to be a doozey. AND it’s coming.