Taps Coogan – January 9th, 2023

The following map shows the estimated Total Fertility Rate for nearly every country in the World in 2023, based on estimates from the CIA World Factbook.

The punchline is that the large majority of the world lives in a country with a fertility rate below the replacement rate (2.10). In fact, there is only one developed-market economy in the entire world with an above-replacement fertility rate: Israel. Furthermore, there is not a single country in Europe or East-Asia with an above-replacement fertility rate. After Israel, the developed countries with the highest fertility rates are France, New Zealand, and the US, though all remain below 2.00.

The country with the lowest fertility rate is Taiwan (1.09), followed by South Korea, Singapore, Ukraine, and Italy. As a point of refence, a society which maintains a birth rate of ‘1’ will see its great grandchildren’s generation shrink by roughly 90% compared to today’s child bearing generation.

At the other end of the spectrum is Niger, Angola, the DRC, Mali, and Benin, which all have fertility rates above 5.30 (6.73 for Niger). In fact, at Niger’s current fertility rate, its population should more than double every 20 years.