Taps Coogan – January 12th, 2024
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The following chart highlights the deteriorating economic position reality in Germany, this time by showing a multi-year contraction in per-capita household consumption:
Germany – Real Household Consumption per capita
— Nicolas Goetzmann (@NicolasGoetzman) January 11, 2024
Q4 2019 – Q3 2023 : -4.1%
7.2% below 1991-2019 trend
Back to 2016 Level
From Q4 2019 :
Population : +1.7%
Real Households Consumption : -2.5% pic.twitter.com/0WyZCAlkQX
In real, per-capita terms, German household consumption has been contracting since the start of 2020, joining a mountain of data pointing to long-term structural economic weakness. Germany’s industrial output peaked back in 2018, its working age population peaked in 2005, and its net exports peaked in 2016. As we keep noting, Germany has nearly the highest energy costs in Europe despite having among the highest carbon intensities (and higher than the US), very high taxes, an everything-hostile regulatory environment, an overreliance on a collection of auto brands with a deteriorating quality reputation, and an overreliance on the internal combustion auto industry.
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Remember back in 2017 when the press tearfully eulogized the United States and anointed Germany as the new “leader of the free world?” Or the snide condescension that beamed from the faces of Germany’s UN delegation when Trump delivered his speech that warned them about their overreliance on Russian energy? When I read stories like the one above, I’m really happy that the word “schadenfreude” has entered the English language.
Looks a lot like Canada, you should look at a few different supposedly rich western countries and crucially look in per capita terms and see how really they are in a depression with falling living standards not just stagnation.
And don’t leave out the USA. Our GNP is in no trivial part mere public spending.Heck, if we were only to remove the direct deficit spending portion of public spending we are functionally in the Great Depression. Our true status is hidden behind a veil of defict spending, lowish tech Apple iphone hardware, and the mundane code of clever apps. The veil will not hide things forever.