Taps Coogan – July 20th, 2021

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The chart below, from Michael McDonough, Chief Economist for financial products at Bloomberg, shows the trend in number of Covid cases and fatalities being reported in the UK. The UK is ground zero for the most recent wave of ‘Delta’ Covid.

If you are wondering why the UK government just lifted most Covid related restrictions despite the sharp rise in cases, consult the orange line (fatalities) in the chart above.

High vaccination rates, antibodies acquired the old fashioned way, better treatment protocols, perhaps even changes in these new variants of Covid, etc… are having a large effect on the mortality of the disease.

The last time the UK reached the number of cases that it is currently reporting (about 50,00 a day), roughly 1,000 people were reported to be dying with Covid every day. Today, that number is 25. Yes, that number is likely to rise in the coming weeks, just as it did the first time, but even accounting for that lag between cases and fatalities, the fatality rate appears to be an order of magnitude lower than it was during the last wave.

Covid is probably never going away completely. However, as the UK government is highlighting, it should no longer be the overriding consideration in all things. For markets in particular, now would be a good time to turn the page.

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