Taps Coogan – January 30th, 2024

As the following chart highlights, container shipping volumes through the Suez Canal have hit near-zero for the first time since the Ever Given ship briefly blocked transit in 2020. Via Andreas Steno Larson:

We are approaching a 1970s style de facto shipping blockade!

The situation is worsening in the Red Sea. No containers, soon no dry bulk and no mid-sized tankers either!

Full data in our editorial here -> https://t.co/wXRWFbhVnL pic.twitter.com/75JKW5a7Cd

— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) January 28, 2024

Whereas the Ever Given blockage was a relatively brief interruption, the remarkably effective Houthi blockade of the Red Sea has no easy resolution and continues despite several belated and incremental retaliatory strikes. It is very likely part of a broad strategy by Iran and its regional proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, militias in Iraq, etc…) to draw the US into another amorphous Middle-Eastern conflict that diverts resources away from Ukraine or Taiwan, where Iran’s allies Russia and China are waging major power wars of expansion (or soon will be).

Iran likely sees itself at the pinnacle of its regional power and so close to a nuclear weapon that the distinction is irrelevant, and likely sees the US as politically divided, financially constrained, and lacking the focus needed to win/support any conflict, let alone a trans-national one in the Middle East with unclear objectives that should really be pursued by regional stakeholders like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, or the European countries that rely much more than the US on Red Sea shipping.