Taps Coogan – August 11th, 2023

The old trajectory for federal spending was ‘up.’ The new trajectory is ‘up’ even faster, as the following chart from Bank of America via Isabelnet highlights:

Sure, spending is technically down from the absolute zenith of the Covid era fraud-infested free-money giveaways, but not by much. After backing off from those zenith highs from 2021, the pace of spending has been re-accelerating over the past year with a steepness far exceeding the pre-Covid era.

Meanwhile, the interest expense on the national debt has eclipsed defense spending and is approaching $1 trillion.

Another way of viewing current spending levels is that, baring the Covid peak and the World Wars, they are the largest percent of GDP in American history.

All things being equal, if the current spending caps forced upon Washington by the House were to hold, the pace of spending should in theory moderate relative to GDP over time. Of course, all things are not equal. Not only is Washington unlikely to strictly abide by the agreement, the way things are shaping up yours truly sees the GOP as likely to lose the House in 2024.