Taps Coogan – July 21st, 2021
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If you’re looking for an ‘out-there’ but considered view of where the economic world is headed, Viktor Shvets, global strategist at Macquarie Bank, is your man. In the following interview with Macro Voices, he details a multi-decade view that encompasses societal reflections on over-financialization, demographics, over-indebtedness, technology, and so on.
Mr. Shvets punchline? Disinflation and big government are likely to win out over the coming decades, though the next ten years or so is likely to see swings between inflation and deflation as the physical investment associated with new technologies sorts itself out, ultimately driving the cost of capital down to zero.
For what little it’s worth, Mr. Shvets’ longer term outlook sounds an awful lot like taking a trend that has already reached an extreme and then, quite literally, extrapolating it to infinity. The real world doesn’t work that way. I hope Mr. Shvets is wrong on many of his points and disagree with some of his assumptions.
Nonetheless, he has some good points.
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