Submitted by Taps Coogan on the 2nd of April 2020 to The Sounding Line.

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It certainly doesn’t feel like it, but there are some early signs that the Coronavirus outbreak is losing some momentum globally, as we have now noted a few times in recent days.

Although the world reported a record number of new cases yesterday, April 1st, the global daily growth rate in cumulative cases has been slowing from a peak of 13% on March 26th to 9% on April 1st. This slight slowing has allowed recoveries (and deaths), which lag the discovery of new cases by a few weeks, to starting catching up with the pace of new cases. The result is that the daily growth rate of active cases (cases minus recoveries and deaths) has slowed from 17.8% on March 19th to ‘just’ 8.8% on April 1st. Indeed, the increase in active cases on April 1st was slightly lower than on March 31st and has been nearly flat for a handful of days.

To be clear, this isn’t evidence that the outbreak is getting better. It is evidence that the outbreak has stopped getting worse at an accelerating pace for a handful of days. Nonetheless, this loss of momentum has occurred despite dramatic increases in the volume of tests being performed globally, and particularly in the US.

Nothing prevents the outbreak from re-accelerating, particularly somewhere that is not yet under quarantine and/or not performing mass testing. Until then, hopefully a peak in new cases emerges.

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