Taps Coogan – February 15th, 2021

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China analyst Gordon Chang, author of “The Coming Collapse of China,” recently spoke with The Epoch Times’ Jan Jekielek to warn why he sees the coming years as “perhaps the most dangerous time” in the history of US-Chinese relations.

In the wide ranging interview, Mr. Chang, a long-time China critic, discusses the prudence and efficacy of trying to strike a more cooperative approach with China in light of their egregious human rights abuses and terrible track record of adhering to international commitments.

He also makes the following warning:

“Societies are only going to recover if they have safe and effective vaccines and the US has two of them… We are going to be able to vaccinate our way out of the pandemic. China doesn’t have a vaccine which is that effective. It’s vaccine’s are at best 65% effective… China’s economy did not grow the 2.3% they said it did last year… They’ve taken output out of 2019 in order to make 2020 look better…”

“What we see in China and the leadership is… arrogance and insecurity, a closing window of opportunity if you look at, for instance, their economy, their environment, their demography. Those trends look horrible for China. China probably has a total fertility rate which is like 1.0, maybe even less than 1. By the end of this century, the country won’t be 1.4 billion people like it is now. It will be maybe 400 million, maybe 450 million… They’re going to understand that they have a limited time in which to accomplish historic objectives, which means this is perhaps the most dangerous time in history… I am not saying the worst will occur. I am saying the elements for the worst are in place and it’s going to depend on how other countries deal with China…”

For what it’s worth, while estimates do forecast a dramatic halving of China’s population by 2100, it is not expected to fall to 450 million or to fall below that of the US.

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