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In the Last 200 Years, Only Two Presidents Have Gained in the House in Their First Midterm Election

Submitted by Taps Coogan on the 27th of August 2018 to The Sounding Line.

With the Republican Party’s first midterm election under President Donald Trump looming in November, it is worth reflecting briefly on the history of presidents’ first midterm elections.

While first term presidents’ parties frequently maintain stable or increase representation in the Senate during their first midterm election, it has been exceedingly rare for presidents to do so in the House of Representatives.

While the first few Presidents in American history all gained seats in the House of Representatives during their first midterm election (Washington through Monroe), in the 200 years since the House General Election of 1818, it has only happened three times.

One of those times, the 1902 general election during Teddy Roosevelt’s first term, featured many newly created House Seats. While Roosevelt’s party (the Republicans) gained some of those new seats, they gained fewer than the Democrats, and as a result, Republican control of the House decreased and the election was considered a defeat for the President’s party.

The only two times in the last 200 years when president’s party actually increased their control in the House during in their first midterm election was under FDR and George W. Bush. FDR’s victory came during the depths of the Great Depression as he rolled out the massively popular New Deal policies and George W. Bush’s win came shortly after the attacks of September 11th.

32 of the 34 presidents since 1818 have lost representation in the House during their first midterm election. Those losses were suffered by Democrats, Republicans, Democrat-Republicans, and Wigs during times of peace and war, prosperity and depression, regardless of whether or nor the party held a majority in the House.

None of this means that the president’s party necessarily loses its majority in the House (if it has one), and just because something is rare doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Nonetheless, it does mean that there is a strong historical precedent for the president’s party to lose seats in the House during their first term.

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House Election President President’s Party Change in President’s Party’s Seats in House During First Midterm Election
1790 Washington Washington +2
1798 Adams Federalist +3
1802 Jefferson Democrat-Republican +35
1810 Madison Democrat-Republican +13
1818 Monroe Democrat-Republican +15
1826 Adams Democrat-Republican -9
1830 Jackson Democratic -10
1838 Van Buren Democratic -3
1842 Harrison Whig -69
1846 Polk Democratic -30
1850 Taylor Whig -22
1854 Pierce Democratic -75
1858 Buchanan Democratic -35
1862 Lincoln Republican -21
1870 Grant Republican -32
1878 Hayes Republican -4
1882 Garfield Republican -29
1886 Cleveland Democratic -16
1890 Harrison Republican -93
1894 Cleveland Democratic -127
1898 William McKinley Republican -21
1902 Teddy Roosevelt Republican R+9
1910 William Taft Republican -57
1914 Woodrow Wilson Democratic -60
1922 Warren Harding Republican -77
1926 Calvin Coolidge Republican -9
1930 Herbert Hoover Republican -52
1934 Franklin D. Roosevelt Democratic +9
1946 Harry S. Truman Democratic -54
1954 Dwight D. Eisenhower Republican -18
1962 John F. Kennedy Democratic -4
1966 Lyndon B. Johnson Democratic -47
1970 Richard Nixon Republican -12
1974 Gerald Ford Republican -48
1978 Jimmy Carter Democratic -15
1982 Ronald Reagan Republican -26
1990 George H. W. Bush Republican -8
1994 Bill Clinton Democratic -54
2002 George W. Bush Republican +8
2010 Barack Obama Democratic -63

 

August 27, 2018 Taps Coogan

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