Taps Coogan – June 14th, 2023
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We made this point a few months ago and now, with a few more months of data, we’re making it again. The decline in headline CPI since its peak last June has been one of the fastest on record.
![](https://thesoundingline.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/11-month-change-in-headline-cpi.png)
CPI peaked at just under 9% last June (11 months ago) and has fallen to 4.1% as of the May data released yesterday. That ~4.8% decline has only been eclipsed twice since the early 1950s: briefly during the Global Financial Crisis and for one month during the severe 1980/81 recession. Those two recessions are widely considered the worst two recession since the Great Depression.
As we pointed out last time, this is as close to a ‘goldilocks’ pace of decline in CPI as the Fed is going to get. The risk/reward of further rate hikes is highly dubious.
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