Submitted by Taps Coogan on the 5th of September 2019 to The Sounding Line.
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Sam Zell, businessman, real-estate mogul, and Chairman of Equity Group Investments, recently spoke with CNBC and, in a brief exchange, shared a sentiment that we have also discussed here at The Sounding Line; It’s hard to have a recession when interest rates are at zero and everyone is worried about a recession.
Some excerpts from Sam Zell:
“…It’s very hard to have a recession when interest rates are at zero. The fact that I am waiting for (a recession) is probably a positive sign because complacency is usually a major factor that leads to big surprises.”
“Isn’t the real problem that pundits like you, and me, and her haven’t been right… about anything? We sit here and predict it’s gonna be this and it’s gonna be that and we are worried about this and we are worried about that. And meanwhile, the game keeps going.”
“We’ve certainly never had a cash position like we have now… We think there is going to be some significant opportunities, but what we don’t see is the urgency. What we don’t see is the movement that’s pushing it one way or the other.”
“In the great recession, the whole scenario was compounded by the fact that we had mark-to-market right in the middle of a recession… it was insane. That took a difficult situation and made it impossible. We don’t have anything like today… We have an environment that’s semi-positive.”
For whatever it’s worth, I can’t remember a period when more people were worried about a recession. I also can’t remember a recession that everyone predicted.
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The era of mismatches:
– Near record low unemployment rate with Labor For Participation Rate where it was in the 60’s
– 70% of UST debt is in notes 1-year or less while 25% of SOFR transactions are 20-30 bps over 30 year yields, ~80% of SOFR transactions are ~5-10bps over 30 year yeilds
– 30 year yields making new record lows while 30 year mortgages applications have been dropping for nearly a year…
Indeed. Market pricing in the best parts of a good economy and the stimulus from a bad one all at the same time
Did someone heard about phenomena called Black Swan? It’s very hard to anticipate something what you don’t know. Meaby there will be no more recessions, just one big collapse…
What about M2 ? cash velocity is slowing as the middle class (or what’s left of it) either reels in it’s strings to prepare for deflation, or licks it’s wounds, further loading up the charge card with beer butter and TIDE pods… False statistics and crime are the only thing postponing the implosion… $1.3 trillion in DOD money handed out by Rump, is a clear indication of how “The boyz from Mt. Sinai” are planning to keep their counterfeiting operation alive…. that, and bartering off chunks of AmeriKa in lieu of payment for bond redemptions… The fact that CHASE just… Read more »
I think the best analogy I’ve ever read was comparing
a dying economy with a stage 4 cancer patient…
you just don’t know when… but you can bet your a**
that it wont happen without insiders (tuning it)to
expire at the moment they choose… in the last 15 years I cant remember how many times I watched major positions
placed 1 second before market close on a Friday… and TSHTF one second after market open on Monday !
They will do this when all crime and derivatives work
nomoreth.
I can’t have a headache there is no aspirin on the shelf
A Recession is just like Climate Change…mind control and PROPAGANDA….to benefit the’ elites’…and the BANKSTERS….