Taps Coogan, December 11th, 2020

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The following chart, via Liz Ann Sonders, shows the dismal track record of professional forecasters on predicting the 10-Year treasury rate.

Perhaps more interesting than the fact that the consensus outlook for the most important proxy for growth and inflation in the economy is nearly always wrong, is the fact that it is almost always the same. There is no sign that forecasters have absorbed anything from 20 years of making the same wrong call. You’d think, given how often we all hear it, ‘Don’t Fight the Fed’ would have sunken in by now.

So much for the consensus of experts…

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